Live Streaming Predictions for 2026

Hello, and welcome to the first newsletter of 2026! I hope you've all had a relaxing and rewarding break, and are ready to take on the year ahead! The first newsletter of the year is always different, as instead of the traditional recap of everything that happened over the last week, I share my predictions for Twitch, streaming, and the creator industry for the year ahead!

You can check out last year's predictions and a mini-analysis of my Twitch predictions before reading this. (I did pretty well last year, with an overall grade of B+).

It's a long one, so it may be cut off in email. You may want to read it on-site instead! You'll also find the ability to leave comments, so if you have anything you want to add to the discussion, I encourage you to do so! And with that, let's get into my predictions for 2026!

2026 Twitch Predictions

• Changes to Subscription Promotions
  Last year, Twitch (finally) started to realize that streamers know their communities best and are uniquely qualified to run their own promotions using the Shared Discount option. This has resulted in higher numbers of 5+ Gifted Subs, according to their own data. Optimistically, I'm hoping Twitch gives creators even more control through short-term self-paid sub promotions (i.e., 2 hours per month where creators can offer 50% off the first month of a channel sub). I also expect them to continue tweaking those Shared Discounts to offer Scaled Discounts. (i.e., 35% off 5+, 37% off 20+, 40% off 200, etc.) We could also see a discount when converting a Gifted Sub to a Self-Paid sub. Unfortunately, I also feel like Twitch is considering an ad-supported tier or possibly removing ad-free from Gifted/Prime subs altogether.
  
• Sponsorship Improvements
  Twitch launched the sponsorship product with some of the worst rates creators have ever seen - often 50-70% below fair market value for most creators. As Twitch works out the bugs in this system (and creators are vigilant in rejecting these bad offers), they should be able to get those rates up to a respectable level. On the bright side, now that the feature is released, it opens the door to a bunch of new sponsorship concepts! For example, a diversified Subtember, with multiple brands presenting discounted subs each day for creators. The opportunities are endless if Twitch is willing to be creative and community-centric!
  
• Celebrity Influx and In Flux
  Twitch is turning to celebrities in hopes that these artists, actors, or athletes will provide the kind of live content that will drive their fans to the platform. On paper, it sounds like a good plan. In reality, I'm not convinced there's any alignment that works long term. Celebrities have a lot going on, so streaming has to provide them with BIG attention or BIG money - Twitch delivers neither. Celebs who go live have no community, so it's all external, and that presents a scary reality. Example: Justin Bieber has 100M followers, but his streams have ~2K viewers (when Twitch puts him on the front page, it goes up to ~6K). 2K is a lot to the average person, but it may not feel very enjoyable when you're used to hundreds of thousands of likes and comments. Financially, Bieber has 500 self-paid subs, some gifted subs and Bits, plus ad revenue... napkin math suggests he's earning $150 every hour he streams. That's the best-case scenario. For anyone who's not Justin Bieber, you may have fewer viewers and less earnings, plus the added risk of saying or doing something you have to apologize for. So, it's not surprising that most celebrities tap out after just a few months. This may be the last year they focus on recruiting celebrities to the platform, as they realize it's not a fruitful long-term strategy.